1/11/21

By Tom Cartwright

DEATH FLIGHTS - WEEK OF 4 January – please share for transparency

Ø No Slow Down During Presidential Transition.

Ø 22 Deportations – Most since the week of 9 November. To 8 different countries.

Ø 3 Deportation flights to Honduras. First flights in 9 weeks following devastation from 2 hurricanes.

Ø 97 Total flights – Most since week of 6 October.

Ø Full Year 2020 ICE Air Report Here (click)

Photo is the 1st deportation flight of the year arriving and disembarking in Guatemala this week.

WEEKLY SUMMARY

- 97 Total Flights. Up 34 from last week (holiday week) , and 17 above the last 6-week average.

- 22 Deportations – Up 7 from last week, and 5 above prior 6-week average. To 8 different countries in Latin America and the Caribbean.

- Cuba (0), We just want to note that following the first flight to Cuba since 28 Feb that occurred in late December there has been no additional flights as of yet.

- Honduras (3), The first deportation flights to Honduras in 9 weeks. The flights have landed in Tegucigalpa rather than San Pedro Sula, the normal destination, most likely because of the damage that remains and the devastation in the area of San Pedro. Given the damage and lack of basic services it is unconscionable to return to deportation flights, especially 3 in the first week.

- A new plan for new caravan has been circulating in social media in Honduras. Yesterday (8 Jan) CBPs Mark Morgan issued a warning that was posted on the Government of Honduras Migration site warning of the dangers of the journey and basically that it would be stopped at the border of every country along the way. Guatemala has issued warnings as well, as well as Mexico. We don’t know if this hard line is from our old, or new Administration.

- Dominican Republic (1), Continues every 2, and sometimes 3 weeks.

- Guatemala (1), same as last 2 weeks, and down from the 2-3 per week prior to that. June before that. We do not know the reason for the slow down. The longer it goes at this level the more it strengthens our view that encounters are not increasing, and may decrease in December.

- Mexico (9), Same as last week and typical of almost every week over the last four months. August was 7 per week and August through November stepped up to 9. Flights to 6 different cities this week, and similar to every week: Mexico City (2), Guadalajara (2), Puebla (1), Morelia (1), Villahermosa (1), and Queretaro (2). Click here for is a very good video of a deportation flight and article from this Friday at Brownsville by Sandra Sanchez.

- El Salvador (4), Up 3 from last week and only the highest week since 23 November. 2 were coupled with flights to Ecuador.

- Ecuador (2), Up 1 from last week and fairly consistent with 1 to 2 per week. Both flights were coupled with El Salvador flights.

- Nicaragua (1), Same as prior 2 weeks. Prior to that flights were about every other week.

- Haiti (1), very consistent at 1 every other week on Tuesdays.

- 17 Deportation Connects, up 8 from last week and 4 above the last 6-week average and consistent with increase in deportations.

- 20 Deportation Returns, up 8 from last week, and 5 above the prior 6-week average and consistent level of deportations.

- 38 Shuffle flights in the US, up 11 from last week, and 3 above the last 6-week average.

Ø NOTEWORTHY THIS WEEK

Ø ENCOUNTERS: Even though encounters were essentially flat in November at 61,101, for years after Hurricane Mitch in 1998 there was a significant migration North and many believe it is highly likely that we will start to see this in the first quarter. People have not only lost hope, but all their belongings and their source of their livelihood. Climate migration will be a powerful future force and it is here now. There was a small caravan that left Honduras this week, but disbanded after Honduran authorities required proof of a negative COVID test.

- I am wondering now if there will be a slight pause over the next month in encounter increases as a result of the dislocations from the hurricanes, the holidays, political conditions in the US, and the continues aggressiveness of Guatemala and Mexico to migration which may dissolve in the new year. And that, combined with the hurricane devastation, may spur more migration.

- It is questionable if a significant number will reach the US southern border based on what seems to be a hard line against crossing borders by all countries on the migration route.

-And, that is not to sound an alarm, the US should be in a position to accept that migration if we have resolve of will and to invest resources.

Ø The Detainee population increased 94 this week, small, but only the second increase in many months. It could be the holiday and the slowdown in deportation flights. The population increased to 16,037 and is under half of what it was at the end of February. The decrease over the last 4 weeks has been 340.

Ø Through November, 326,000 asylum seekers have been turned back and expelled under the illegal CDC order (title 42) since mid-March, 61,000 alone in November, or 90% of all encounters. Almost 13,000 unaccompanied children have been expelled into danger alone since mid-March according to the ACLU press release describing the Court order that now prohibits unaccompanied children from being expelled under Title 42.

Ø 8,654 detainees have tested positive for COVID, up this week by 199 or .3%. Testing increased last week by only 1,664 to 80,200 on a cumulative basis, so the positivity rate was around 11%. The number tested was lower than the last 4-week average of 2,700. Not sure why. There are 487 detainees in isolation of under monitoring, down slightly by 23 from last week.

Note: ICE Air does not disclose their flights. Flight listing gleaned from public flight information, knowledge of detention center locations, air charter services and historic patterns. In rare cases, there may be a flight we miss, or include in error.