12/26/20

By Tom Cartwright

DEATH FLIGHTS - WEEK OF 21 December – please share for transparency

Ø Feliz Navidad (Merry Christmas) – No

Ø Nochebueno (Christmas Eve) – 8 deportations

Ø Navidad (Christmas) – 2 deportations

Ø 8 Weeks with no flights to Honduras because of hurricanes Eta and Iota. Prior there were 4-5 per weeks.

Ø Lowest level of deportations to Guatemala (1) since the week of 1 June

Ø We will be very interested in # of encounters when reported for December. I think they may be flat to down, a contrarian guess. See discussion in special notes below.

WEEKLY SUMMARY

- 74 Total Flights. Down 8 from last week, and 12 below the last 6-week average. Most likely Impacted by holiday week.

- 17 Deportations – Up 1 from last week, and 2 below prior 6-week average. 8 th week of no flights to Honduras because of Hurricanes Eta and Iota when there were usually 4-5 per week. To 6 different countries in Latin America and the Caribberan.

- Honduras (0), No flights to Honduras because of Eta and Iota For the 7th week in a row resulting in the suspension of 30-35 flights based on patterns. The last flights (4) were Friday, 30 October before Eta hit Honduras on the following Wednesday. The airport was flooded also by Iota and it is not estimated to open until mid-to late December. It is unknown if ICE Air will try to fly to an alternative location in Honduras. The suspension may be more because the airport is flooded and less because ICE cares about humanitarian concerns. See Guatemala below.

- In the 4 weeks of October, 900 people were returned by the US to Honduras. None have been returned over the last 7 weeks. We do not know if they have been expelled to MX by land, or are being held. And we don’t yet know if encounters are lower (CBP should report in next 10 days). CBP will not respond to our inquiry.

- Haiti (1), Continues in a every other week pattern.

- Guatemala (1), down 1 from last week and lowest since 1 June. We do not know the reason for the slow down. And, the flight was coupled with one to El Salvador. The longer it goes at this level the more it strengthens our view that encounters are not increasing, and may decrease in December.

- Mexico (9), Same as last week and typical of almost every week over the last four months. August was 7 per week and August through November stepped up to 9. Flights to 6 different cities this week, and similar to every week: Mexico City (2), Guadalajara (2), Puebla (1), Morelia (1), Villahermosa (1), and Queretaro (2). Click here for is a very good video of a deportation flight and article from this Friday at Brownsville by Sandra Sanchez.

- El Salvador (3), Up 1 from last week and at historic pattern of 3-4, and consistent with most of August – November. Two flights were coupled with flights to Ecuador and one with one to Guatemala.

- Ecuador (2), Up 1 from last week and fairly consistent with 1 to 2 per week. Both flights were coupled with El Salvador flights.

- Nicaragua (1), Up 1 from last week, and first flight in 4 weeks. Prior to that flights were about every other week.

- 12 Deportation Connects, down 2 from last week and 1 below the last 6-week average and consistent with deportations.

- 14 Deportation Returns, down 1 from last week, and 2 below the prior 6-week average and consistent level of deportations.

- 31 Shuffle flights in the US, down 6 from last week, and 7 below the last 6-week average.

Ø NOTEWORTHY THIS WEEK

Ø ENCOUNTERS: Even though encounters were essentially flat in November at 61,101, for years after Hurricane Mitch in 1998 there was a significant migration North and many believe it is highly likely that we will start to see this soon.People have not only lost hope, but all their belongings and their source of their livelihood. Climate migration will be a powerful future force and it is here now. There was a small caravan that left Honduras this week, but disbanded after Honduran authorities required proof of a negative COVID test.

- I am wondering now if there will be a slight pause over the next month in encounter increases as a result of the dislocations from the hurricanes, the holidays, political conditions in the US, and the continues aggressiveness of Guatemala and Mexico to migration which may dissolve in the new year. And that, combined with the hurricane devastation, may spur more migration.

-And, that is not to sound an alarm, the US should be in a position to accept that migration if we have resolve of will and to invest resources.

Ø The Detainee population decreased 170 this week, a reasonably typical change. The population of fell below 16,000 this week to 15,993 and is under half of what it was at the end of February. The average decrease over the last 4 weeks has been 132.

Ø Through November, 326,000 asylum seekers have been turned back and expelled under the illegal CDC order (title 42) since mid-March, 61,000 alone in November, or 90% of all encounters. Almost 13,000 unaccompanied children have been expelled into danger alone since mid-March according to the ACLU press release describing the Court order that now prohibits unaccompanied children from being expelled under Title 42.

Ø 8,247 detainees have tested positive for COVID, up this week by 160 or .2%. Testing increased last week by 3,747 to 76,351 on a cumulative basis, so the positivity rate was around 11%. The average number tested over the last 4 weeks has been reasonably consistent. There are 456 detainees in isolation of under monitoring, up slightly by 38 from last week.

Note: ICE Air does not disclose their flights. Flight listing gleaned from public flight information, knowledge of detention center locations, air charter services and historic patterns. In rare cases, there may be a flight we miss, or include in error.