1/4/21
By Tom Cartwright
DEATH FLIGHTS - WEEK OF 28 December – please share for transparency Photo is the last deportation flight of the year arriving and disembarking in Guatemala this week.
Ø Coming Soon. Watch for our Full Year 2020 report. See the total 2020 ICE Air deportations and total flights.
Ø 15 deportations this week, 3 below last 6 week average, even though total flights at 63 were 20 below last 6-week average.
Ø Cuba accepted the first ICE Air deportation flight since 28 February.
Ø Continue to guess encounters at the border (crossings) may be down or flat in December when reported by CBP.
WEEKLY SUMMARY
- 63 Total Flights. Down 11 from last week, and 20 below the last 6-week average. Most likely Impacted by holiday week.
- 15 Deportations – Down 2 from last week, and 3 below prior 6-week average. 9 th week of no flights to Honduras because of Hurricanes Eta and Iota when there were usually 4-5 per week. To 7 different countries in Latin America and the Caribbean.
- Cuba (1), The first flight Cuba has allowed since 28 February. Swift (ICE Air contractor) has flown many tourist flights from Miami to Havana each day since Cuba opened in mid-November. This flight was unusual because it went to Alexandria LA from Miami and then continued to Havana. ICE confirmed to us it was an ICE Air “mission”, but they would not indicate if it was an “exception” flight or the start of regular deportations. It occurred on Tuesday and there were no others this week.
- Honduras (0), No flights to Honduras because of Eta and Iota For the 7th week in a row resulting in the suspension of 34-38 flights based on patterns. The last flights (4) were Friday, 30 October before Eta hit Honduras on the following Wednesday. The airport was flooded also by Iota and it is not estimated to open until mid-to late December. It is unknown if ICE Air will try to fly to an alternative location in Honduras. The suspension may be more because the airport is flooded and less because ICE cares about humanitarian concerns. See Guatemala below.
- In the 4 weeks of October, 900 people were returned by the US to Honduras. None have been returned over the last 9 weeks. We do not know if these thousands of people have been expelled to MX by land, or are being held. And we don’t yet know if encounters are lower (CBP should report in next 10 days). CBP will not respond to our inquiry.
- Columbia (1), Continues in a very sporadic once every 6 to 10 weeks.
- Guatemala (1), same as last week and lowest since 1 June before that. We do not know the reason for the slow down. The longer it goes at this level the more it strengthens our view that encounters are not increasing, and may decrease in December.
- Mexico (9), Same as last week and typical of almost every week over the last four months. August was 7 per week and August through November stepped up to 9. Flights to 6 different cities this week, and similar to every week: Mexico City (2), Guadalajara (2), Puebla (1), Morelia (1), Villahermosa (1), and Queretaro (2). Click here for is a very good video of a deportation flight and article from this Friday at Brownsville by Sandra Sanchez.
- El Salvador (1), Down 2 from last week and only the 2nd week in 12 at that low level and it was coupled with a flight to Ecuador.
- Ecuador (1), Down 1 from last week and fairly consistent with 1 to 2 per week. The flight was coupled an El Salvador flight.
- Nicaragua (1), Same as last week. Prior to that flights were about every other week.
- 9 Deportation Connects, down 3 from last week and 4 below the last 6-week average and slightly lower than expected based on deportations.
- 12 Deportation Returns, down 2 from last week, and 4 below the prior 6-week average and consistent level of deportations.
- 27 Shuffle flights in the US, down 4 from last week, and 9 below the last 6-week average. The lowest level since the week of 4 April, the lowest week of all of 2020. We don’t know it this is just because of the holiday week.
Ø NOTEWORTHY THIS WEEK
Ø ENCOUNTERS: Even though encounters were essentially flat in November at 61,101, for years after Hurricane Mitch in 1998 there was a significant migration North and many believe it is highly likely that we will start to see this soon.People have not only lost hope, but all their belongings and their source of their livelihood. Climate migration will be a powerful future force and it is here now. There was a small caravan that left Honduras this week, but disbanded after Honduran authorities required proof of a negative COVID test.
- I am wondering now if there will be a slight pause over the next month in encounter increases as a result of the dislocations from the hurricanes, the holidays, political conditions in the US, and the continues aggressiveness of Guatemala and Mexico to migration which may dissolve in the new year. And that, combined with the hurricane devastation, may spur more migration.
-And, that is not to sound an alarm, the US should be in a position to accept that migration if we have resolve of will and to invest resources.
Ø The Detainee population decreased 50 this week, a reasonably small change. The population of fell to 15.943 and is under half of what it was at the end of February. The average decrease over the last 4 weeks has been 190.
Ø Through November, 326,000 asylum seekers have been turned back and expelled under the illegal CDC order (title 42) since mid-March, 61,000 alone in November, or 90% of all encounters. Almost 13,000 unaccompanied children have been expelled into danger alone since mid-March according to the ACLU press release describing the Court order that now prohibits unaccompanied children from being expelled under Title 42.
Ø 8,455 detainees have tested positive for COVID, up this week by 208 or .3%. Testing increased last week by 2,005 to 78,536 on a cumulative basis, so the positivity rate was around 11%. The average number tested over the last 4 weeks has been reasonably consistent. There are 511 detainees in isolation of under monitoring, up slightly by 50 from last week.
Note: ICE Air does not disclose their flights. Flight listing gleaned from public flight information, knowledge of detention center locations, air charter services and historic patterns. In rare cases, there may be a flight we miss, or include in error.