2/15/21

By Tom Cartwright

ICE Air Weekly Activity – Week of 8 Feb 2021.

 Business As Usual Continues. Average Weekly Removal Flights Last 3 months: 20.5. Average Weekly after Inauguration (last 3 weeks): 22.0.

 21 Removal flights to 6 different countries, 1 over the prior 6-week average.

 95 total ICE Air legs, 11 over the prior 6-week average.

 7 Removal flights to Haiti, bringing February already up to 11 removal flights, just 1 under the record month of 12.

 Black Hole: How many people on the removal flights (and all flights) are people subject to Title 42 (T-42 CDC Health Order), or deportation orders.

 Relative to the above, encounters were up only 6% in January and we wonder if the strong messaging to “wait” will lower encounters and the related expulsions by air.

Photo – Haitians fight for independence.

WEEKLY SUMMARY
- 95 Total Flights. Down 8 from last week, and 11 over the last 6-week average.
- 21 Removal (Deportation/Expulsions) – Down 4 from last week, and 1 above the prior 6-week average. To 6 different countries in Latin America the Caribbean.

- Haiti (7), up 3 from prior week to total 11 already for February and significantly above the normal of 2 flights per month. Before and after October flights to Haiti were about 2 per month. In October there were 12 as encounters increased and T-42 enforced. We understand most of the people returned were subject to T-42. In addition to the reportedly approximately 500 Haitians removed by air this week (and 400 last week) there were many also removed by land this week.

- Following intense advocacy it was reported the week before last that flights to Haiti were suspended for the near term. I actually was told by a Congressional office it was flights to the “Caribbean

- Honduras (1), Down 2 from last week and lower than the recent pattern of 2-3 per week. For the 9 weeks before the last week of December there were no flights because of the suspension following the 2 hurricanes. When they resumed, for two weeks there were flights Monday, Wednesday and Friday until moratorium Friday. Given the damage and lack of basic services it is unconscionable to return to deportation/expulsion flights. Ironic in light of 6,000-9,000 trying to flee and stopped by police and the military in Guatemala at the same time. Pressure is building in Honduras and that will push more to leave. We are hearing rumors of another caravan forming to leave San Pedro Sula on 15 February. Just rumors. US Ambassador to Guatemala Popp seems to be making it clear that he stands Guatemala resisting the advance of caravans.

- I would anticipate more than 1 flight this coming week.

- Guatemala (2), same as 4 of the last 5 weeks, and now seems. We don’t know why the flights have reduced, except maybe fewer crossings. In November there were 17 flights and in December 9 and January 7, and so far in February it looks like it will be in the same range.

- Mexico (8), Down 1 last week, and from almost every week. August was 7 per week and August through November stepped up to 9 every week. Flights to 6 different cities this week, and similar to every week: Mexico City (2), Guadalajara (1), Puebla (1), Morelia (1), Villahermosa (1), and Queretaro (2). Flights may have been lower because of the high number to Haiti/

- El Salvador (2), Flights are somewhat erratic with flights over the last 6 weeks of 3,1,4,3,1,4,3,2. It should be noted that 1 flight was coupled with a flight to Guatemala and one to Ecuador.

- Ecuador (1), down 1 from last week. Alternates between 1 or 2 per week and generally coupled with an El Salvador flight, as it was this week.

- Next week - In addition to Central America, Ecuador and probably more flights to Haiti I would anticipate a flights to Dominican and Nicaragua.

- 19 Removal Connects, up 3 from last week and 6 above the last 6-week average and higher than what might be expected based on removals. Most likely because of the large numbers of connections along the Southern border pointing to high levels of expulsions.

- 19 Removal Returns, down 4 from last week, and 2 above the prior 6-week average and consistent with removal flights.

- 3 Shuffle flights in the US, down 3 from last week, and 1 above the last 6-week average.

- NOTEWORTHY THIS WEEK

 The Detainee population decreased 915 last week, as of 5 February. That large decrease contributed to a decrease over the last month of 1,555. The population decreased to 13,860 and is under half of what it was at the beginning of May.

 Through December, 444,000 asylum seekers have been turned back and expelled under the illegal CDC order (title 42) since mid-March, 62,000 alone in December, or 83% of all encounters, down from the T-42 average of 90%. Yes, Encounters were up 6%, or just over 5,000 but it is no way representative of a “Biden” surge. See the charts an analysis in my twitter thread here.

 9,411 detainees have tested positive for COVID, up this week by 149. Testing increased last week by 3,861 to 95,967 on a cumulative basis, so the positivity rate was around 10 There are 509 detainees in isolation of under monitoring, down from last week.

Note: ICE Air does not disclose their flights. Flight listing gleaned from public flight information, knowledge of detention center locations, air charter services and historic patterns. In rare cases, there may be a flight we miss, or include in error.