2/7/21

By Tom Cartwright

ICE Air Weekly Activity – Week of 1 Feb 2021.
 25 Removal flights to 8 different countries, the most since the week of 26 October, and 7 higher than the prior 6-week average (includes 2 holidays).

 103 total ICE Air legs, also the most since week of 26 October, and 24 higher than prior 6-week average.

 Cancellation of a flight to Africa (Cameroon, DR Congo and Angola) one hour before flight time (see notes below).

 “Suspension” of flights to Haiti in the near term, after a very unusual 4 flights this week (see notes below).

 Black Hole: How many people on the removal flights (and all flights) are people subject to Title 42 (T-42 CDC Health Order), or deportation orders.

WEEKLY SUMMARY
- 103 Total Flights. Up 24 from last week, and up 24 from the last 6-week average.
- 25 Removal (Deportation/Expulsions) – Up 5 from last week, and 7 above the prior 6-week average. To 8 different countries in Latin America the Caribbean.

- Haiti (4), up 4 from prior week and significantly above the normal of 2 flights per month. We understand most of the people returned were subject to T-42. In addition to the reportedly approximately 400 Haitians removed by air there were many also removed by land this week. Early Wednesday it was reported 86 people that actually crossed in the MX State of Tamaulipas were expelled to Juarez in the MX State of Chihuahua, the day after another 54 were expelled by land into MX. I have a suspicion (only that) the move was because Tamaulipas seems to be one of the areas of Mx that is resisting accepting family expulsions based on the application of a new child care law, while Chihuahua is apparently not.

- Following intense advocacy it was reported that flights to Haiti were suspended for the near term. I actually was told by a Congressional office it was flights to the “Caribbean.” I am waiting for a statement from ICE. And, I have seen suspensions of 2 days, a week, and months.

- Honduras (3), Up 2 from last week and similar to the recent pattern of 2-3 per week. For the 9 weeks before the last week of December there were no flights because of the suspension following the 2 hurricanes. When they resumed, for two weeks there were flights Monday, Wednesday and Friday until moratorium Friday. Given the damage and lack of basic services it is unconscionable to return to deportation/expulsion flights. Ironic in light of 6,000-9,000 trying to flee and stopped by police and the military in Guatemala at the same time. Pressure is building in Honduras and that will push more to leave. We are hearing rumors of another caravan forming to leave San Pedro Sula on 15 February. Just rumors. US Ambassador to Guatemala Popp seems to be making it clear that he stands Guatemala resisting the advance of caravans.

- Guatemala (2), same as last week, and now seems to alternate 1 and then 2 per week. We don’t know why the flights have reduced, except maybe fewer crossings. In November there were 17 flights and in December 9 and January 7.

- Mexico (9), Same as last week, and almost every week. August was 7 per week and August through November stepped up to 9 every week. Flights to 6 different cities this week, and similar to every week: Mexico City (2), Guadalajara (2), Puebla (1), Morelia (1), Villahermosa (1), and Queretaro (2).

- El Salvador (3), Flights are somewhat erratic with flights over the last 6 weeks of 3,1,4,3,1,4,3. It should be noted that 2 flights were coupled with flights to Ecuador.

- Dominican (1), up 1 from last week and in a reasonably 1 every 2-week pattern.

- Nicaragua (1), up 1 from last week and in pattern of 1 about every 2 -3 weeks.

- Ecuador (2), same as last week. Alternates between 1 or 2 per week and generally coupled with an El Salvador flight, as both were this week.

- Africa (0), A flight was scheduled for 3 February (a day after Mayorkas was confirmed) to Africa. Based on my sources, the flight would stop in 3 countries and deport people to Cameroon, DR Congo, and Angola. It was cancelled 1 hour before it was to leave Alexandria LA. The Omni plane arrived there empty from its home base in Dallas at Noon and it was scheduled to leave for Africa at 3 pm. Passengers had already been shacked in 5-point restraints by the cancellation around 2 pm. There was tremendous advocacy, legal and grass roots activism around this flight by many black lead groups with many Members of Congress trying to intervene with ICE. Civil Rights complaints were filed. In addition to MOCs we able to get to a high-level White House aid the morning of the flight and pressure continued on all fronts.

- It should be noted that this is the 4th such flight to Africa the group has fought, with no success until this flight. Here is my twitter feed about the flight as it unfolded.

- 16 Deportation Connects, up 2 from last week and 3 above the last 6-week average and consistent with increase in deportations.
- 23 Deportation Returns, up 5 from last week, and 7 above the prior 6-week average and consistent level of deportations.
- 39 Shuffle flights in the US, up 12 from last week, and 7 above the last 6-week average.

- NOTEWORTHY THIS WEEK

 The Detainee population increased slightly by 60 last week, as of 29 January. That increase followed a decrease of 700 the prior week. The population increased to 14,775 and is under half of what it was at the end of February, and is down 1,168 from 28 December.

 Through December, 393,000 asylum seekers have been turned back and expelled under the illegal CDC order (title 42) since mid-March, 61,000 alone in December, or 85% of all encounters, down from the usual 90%. November, Encounters and expulsions have flattened over the last 3 months

 9,262 detainees have tested positive for COVID, up this week by 84. Testing increased last week by 5,883 to 92,106 on a cumulative basis, so the positivity rate was around 11%. This is the largest weekly testing level since the week of 25 October, no doubt because of the heavy removal volume. There are 500 detainees in isolation of under monitoring, down from last week.

Note: ICE Air does not disclose their flights. Flight listing gleaned from public flight information, knowledge of detention center locations, air charter services and historic patterns. In rare cases, there may be a flight we miss, or include in error.