3/1/21

By Tom Cartwright

ICE Air Weekly Activity – Week of 22 Feb 2021.

 Far fewer removal flights than most weeks at 15. Driven by 6 fewer flights per week to Mexico.

 There were a large number of flights domestic flights shuffling people around the US, but some may have been make-up flights from those weather impacted the prior week.

 What has changed with Mexico? 1. Fewer people crossing? 2. More of those subject to T 42 returned by land? Or, 3. More people released from T 42. Until we know more I am guessing 1 and 2 for Mexico.

 Need to witness a few more weeks to see more dynamics between the 3 possibilities. It could even be that more interior releases of families makes more “room” for Mexico to take more land expulsions of single adults, most of which are Mexican.

WEEKLY SUMMARY

SPECIAL NOTE – LAST WEEK WAS SEVERLEY WEATHER IMPACTED SO INCREASES NOT COMPARABLE. FOR COMPARATIVE PURPOSES FOR THE PRIOR-6 WEEK AVERAGE LAST WEEK HAS BEEN EXCLUDED.

- 74 Total Flights. Up 37 from last week, and 15 under the last 6-week average.

- 15 Removal (Deportation/Expulsions) – Up 3 from last week, and 6 below the prior 6-week average. To 8 different countries in Latin America the Caribbean.

- Haiti (1), down 1 from prior week, and down significantly from 7 the week prior to that. There were a total of 14 for February and significantly above normal. Before and after October flights to Haiti were about 2 per month. In October there were 12 as encounters increased and T-42 enforced. We understand most of the people returned were subject to T-42. In addition to the reportedly approximately 1000 Haitians removed by air) . We believe the dramatic decrease in flights is related to fewer crossings.

- Mexico (3), Dramatically down 3 last week, and significantly below the 9 per week as has been normal now for the last 6 months. August was 7 per week and August through November stepped up to 9 every week. This week there was only one flight to each of Morelia, Mexico City and Queretaro. Normally, there have been flights to 6 different cities, and similar to every week: Mexico City (2), Guadalajara (2), Puebla (1), Morelia (1), Villahermosa (1), and Queretaro (2).

- El Salvador (4), Up 2 from last week. Flights are somewhat erratic with flights over the last 7 weeks of 3,1,4,3,2,2,4. It should be noted that all 4 flights were coupled with flights to other countries: Guatemala (2) and one each to Ecuador and Honduras.

- Guatemala (3), up 3 from an unusual week last week at 0, perhaps weather driven. Typically there have been 2 most weeks so this may have just been some make-up.

- Ecuador (1), down 1 from last week. Alternates between 1 or 2 per week and generally coupled with an El Salvador flight, as they were this week.

- Jamaica (1), Up 1 from last week and in pattern of 1 about every 4-6 weeks.

- Dominican (1), Up 1 from last week and in pattern of 1 every 2-3 weeks.

- Columbia (1), Up 1 from last week and in the pattern of 1 every 4 weeks.

- 7 Removal Connects, down 1 from last week and 8 below the last 6-week average and consistent with decrease in removals.

- 11 Removal Returns, up 1 from last week, and 7 below the prior 6-week average and consistent with removal flights.

- 41 Shuffle flights in the US, up 37 from last week (weather related through AEX and TX), and 6 above the last 6-week average.

- NOTEWORTHY THIS WEEK

 The Detainee population increased 515 last week, as of 21 February. That relatively large increase follows a decrease over the last month of 883. Possibly weather related to fewer flights. It is unclear if people awaiting T 42 expulsion are in this number if held in ICE facilities. The population increased to 14,347 and is under half of what it was at the beginning of May.

 Through January, 444,000 asylum seekers have been turned back and expelled under the illegal CDC order (title 42) since mid-March, 62,000 alone in January, or 83% of all encounters, down from the T-42 average of 90%. Yes, Encounters were up 6%, or just over 5,000 but it is no way representative of a “Biden” surge. See the charts an analysis in my twitter thread here.

 9,614 detainees have tested positive for COVID, up this week by 45. Testing increased last week by 940 to 101,214 on a cumulative basis, so the positivity rate was around 9% There are 407 detainees in isolation of under monitoring, down from last week.

Note: ICE Air does not disclose their flights. Flight listing gleaned from public flight information, knowledge of detention center locations, air charter services and historic patterns. In rare cases, there may be a flight we miss, or include in error.