3/15/21

By Tom Cartwright

ICE Air Weekly Activity – Week of 8 March 2021.
 Removal flights at 12 still at lower levels, especially if a few of the 4 Haiti flights (unusual level this week) are excluded.

 But, domestic shuffle flights at 66 increased substantially from last week and are significantly over the prior 6-week average, even after considering the new Brownsville to El Paso 2 per day route.

 This is the highest week for domestic shuffle flights since the week of 1 March 2020. And, even if all the Brownsville/El Paso flights are excluded, it is the most since the week of 17 May 2020.

 Monday started the 2 per day flights from Brownsville to El Paso, and several originated in San Antonio accounting for 13 of the 66 shuffle flights.

 Although initially the implication seemed to be to shelters in El Paso that the 270 people a day on the 2 flights were going to be released to them, we were always suspicious of that conclusion. It appears that some of the people on those planes are being expelled into MX from El Paso. Especially worrisome is if families are flown their for expulsion because MX won’t receive them in Tamaulipas, but will in Chihuahua.

WEEKLY SUMMARY
- 98 Total Flights. Up 40 from last week, and 24 over the last 6-week average.
- 12 Removal (Deportation/Expulsions) – Up 2 from last week, and 5 below the prior 6-week average. To 6 different countries in Latin America the Caribbean.

- Haiti (4), up 3 from the prior week and equal to the total of the 3 prior weeks. The 4th prior week there were7. There was a total of 14 for February, significantly above normal. Before and after October flights to Haiti were about 2 per month. In October there were 12 as encounters increased and T-42 enforced. We understand most of the people returned were subject to T-42. In addition to the reportedly approximately 1000 Haitians removed by air). The decrease in crossings appears to have been reversed recently.

- Mexico (3), Up 1 from last week and 2-3 per week now seems to be the run rate. Flights were to Queretaro, Mexico City and Morelia. We can only assume that more Mexicans are being expelled by land since encounters of Mexicans were up slightly in February. The past 3 weeks have been down significantly below the 9 per week as has been normal now for the last 6 months. August was 7 per week and August through November stepped up to 9 every week. This week there was only one flight to each to Mexico City and Queretaro. Normally, there have been flights to 6 different cities, and similar to every week: Mexico City (2), Guadalajara (2), Puebla (1), Morelia (1), Villahermosa (1), and Queretaro (2). We have question pending with ICE about the reduction.

- El Salvador (1), Same as last week, and down from the 3-4 of prior weeks. It should be noted that this flight was not coupled with a return to any other countries as has been the practice. So, it could mean the same number of people, but just one flight.

- Guatemala (1), same as last week, Typically, there have been 2 most weeks but the prior flight included 131 people returned which is about 2x normal (based on Guatemala’s reporting). So again, perhaps fewer flights with more people on board.

- Ecuador (1), same as last week. Alternates between 1 or 2 per week and this one was coupled with a Honduras flight as it was last week.

- Honduras (2), up 1 from last week. Two weeks prior there were no flights. This one again landed in San Pedro Sula which had been on hold after hurricanes. One of the two then continued to Ecuador.

- 9 Removal Connects, up 2 from last week and 3 below the last 6-week average and consistent with increase in removals.

- 11 Removal Returns, up 2 from last week, and 4 below the prior 6-week average and consistent with removal flights.

- 66 Shuffle flights in the US, up 34 from last week 36 above the last 6-week average. This is the highest week for domestic shuffle flights since the week of 1 March 2020. And, even if all the Brownsville/El Paso flights are excluded, it is the most since the week of 17 May 2020. They have been a lower levels recently, but this will be something we will watch closely.

- NOTEWORTHY THIS WEEK

 Through January, 515,000 asylum seekers have been turned back and expelled under the illegal CDC order (title 42) since mid-March, 70,000 alone in January, or 72% of all encounters, down from the T-42 average of 86%. . See the charts an analysis here.

 The Detainee population decreased 127 last week, as of 5 March. That relatively small decrease follows a decrease over the last month of about 130. The population decreased to 13,763 and is under half of what it was at the beginning of May.

Note: ICE Air does not disclose their flights. Flight listing gleaned from public flight information, knowledge of detention center locations, air charter services and historic patterns. In rare cases, there may be a flight we miss, or include in error.