3/29/21

By Tom Cartwright

ICE Air Weekly Activity – Week of 22 March 2021.

 Removal flights at 12, just 1 below the recent 6-momth month average. However, the last 6 weeks have been significantly lower than the prior typical week of 18-20 removal flights.

 3 flights to Mexico this week after 0 the prior week. For almost 6 months there were 8 to 9 per week. We have a question to CBP to see if that was a US or MX decision. All it means is that more are expelled by land across the border.

 Domestic shuffle flights still elevated at 52, of which 30, over half, were related to the “lateral” flights from Brownsville to El Paso and San Diego each day (including weekends), 2 of which originated in San Antonio.

 The lateral flights began on March 8 and to the end of this week (through Friday, 26 March, there have been 38 flights from Brownsville to El Paso or San Diego from which we know from reports that many families were then expelled into Mecxico.

 Especially worrisome is if families are flown there for expulsion because MX won’t receive them in Tamaulipas, but will in Chihuahua.

 Over the last 2 weeks, we have seen 17 likely flights moving unaccompanied children from overcrowded CBP stations to the Dallas (14) and San Diego (3s Convention Centers. They are not in these totals as we do not consider them in the same category as ICE Air. Charters include 3 historic ICE Air Charter, Swift, Omni and World Atlantic, but these do not seem like ICE operations.

 On Friday, Camilo-Montoya-Galvez of CBS reported that expulsions under title 42 by air have been suspended for Brazil, Nicaragua, Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador – for now. There were flights on Friday so that would mean only deportees were on the planes. We have a request for official confirmation to CBP/ICE.

WEEKLY SUMMARY

- 78 Total Flights. Down 7 from last week, and 4 above the last 6-week average.

- 12 Removal (Deportation/Expulsions) – Up 3 from last week, and 1 below the prior 6-week average. To 6 different countries in Latin America the Caribbean.

- Haiti (3), up 2 from the prior week. Flights have been extremely variable the last 4 weeks at 1, 4,1,3. Will we go back to 1 next week? Before and after October flights to Haiti were about 2 per month. In October there were 12 as encounters increased and T-42 enforced. We understand most of the people returned were subject to T-42. In addition to the reportedly approximately 1000 Haitians removed by air). The decrease in crossings appears to have been reversed recently.

- Mexico (3), Up 3 with flights resuming after a week at 0. Return cities were Villahermosa, Mexico City and Guagelajara. Other than that week, the prior 4 had been at 2 or 3. This is a dramatic change. In June there were 24 flights and then from July through Jan between 30 and 40. From Sept through Jan there were about 9 flights per week to 6 different cities, and similar to every week: Mexico City (2), Guadalajara (2), Puebla (1), Morelia (1), Villahermosa (1), and Queretaro (2). We have question pending with ICE about the reduction.

- El Salvador (1), Same as last week, same as prior 3 weeks.

- Guatemala (1), up 1 from last week. Typically, there has been 1 in 3 of the last 4 weeks.

- Ecuador (1), same as last week, and of each of the prior 4 weeks. Alternates between 1 or 2 per week and this one was coupled with a Honduras flight as it was the last 2 weeks.

- Honduras (3), up 1 from last week. there have been 2 3 of the last 4 weeks. One of the three then continued to Ecuador.

- 7 Removal Connects, up 2 from last week and 2 below the last 6-week average and consistent with increase in removals.

- 7 Removal Returns, same as last week, and 4 below the prior 6-week average and consistent with removal flights.

- 52 Shuffle flights in the US, down 12 from last week 11 above the last 6-week average.

Significantly driven by the “lateral” flights from Brownsville and San Diego accounting for over half of the total. There are 2 lateral flights every day (including weekends) to each destination and some originate in San Antonio.

- NOTEWORTHY THIS WEEK

 Through January, 525,000 asylum seekers have been turned back and expelled under the illegal CDC order (title 42) since mid-March, 70,000 alone in January, or 72% of all encounters, down from the T-42 average of 86%. . See the charts an analysis here.

 The Detainee population increased 165 last week, as of 19 March. That relatively small increase follows a decrease over the last month of 131. The population increased to 14,216 and is under half of what it was at the beginning of May. The increase could be related to temporary inflow from higher encounters.

Note: ICE Air does not disclose their flights. Flight listing gleaned from public flight information, knowledge of detention center locations, air charter services and historic patterns. In rare cases, there may be a flight we miss, or include in error.