3/8/21

By Tom Cartwright

ICE Air Weekly Activity – Week of 1 March 2021.

Photos – the Closed Matamoros camp and new arrivals in Matamoros on the exact same day with no hope because of Title 42 and no safe place.

 Flight activity DOES seem to be deescalating based on the last 3 weeks, one of which may have been weather impacted.

 Based on our ICE Air February Report, the last 3 weeks have been the 3 lowest total flight activity contiguous weeks in the last 12 months. 58 total ICE Air flights this week.

 Removal flights the past 3 contiguous weeks have not been this low since immediately following travel restrictions about a year ago. 10 removal flights last week. Flights to Mexico were compared to many months at 9 per week.

 We need to witness a few more weeks and see the CBP encounter and IOM return statistics when they are released to understand more about the dynamics between the possible reasons. Is it fewer encounters, more expulsion by land into Mexico, or more people released after encounters? I suspect lower encounters (except UCs) and more people (Mexicans?) returned by land.

WEEKLY SUMMARY

- 58 Total Flights. Down 16 from last week, and 18 under the last 6-week average.

- 10 Removal (Deportation/Expulsions) – Down 5 from last week, and 8 below the prior 6-week average. To 8 different countries in Latin America the Caribbean.

- Haiti (1), same as prior week, and down significantly from 7 two weeks prior to that. There was a total of 14 for February, significantly above normal. Before and after October flights to Haiti were about 2 per month. In October there were 12 as encounters increased and T-42 enforced. We understand most of the people returned were subject to T-42. In addition to the reportedly approximately 1000 Haitians removed by air) . We believe the dramatic decrease in flights is related to fewer crossings.

- Mexico (2), Down 1 from last week, and significantly below the 9 per week as has been normal now for the last 6 months. August was 7 per week and August through November stepped up to 9 every week. This week there was only one flight to each to Mexico City and Queretaro. Normally, there have been flights to 6 different cities, and similar to every week: Mexico City (2), Guadalajara (2), Puebla (1), Morelia (1), Villahermosa (1), and Queretaro (2). We have aquestion pending with ICE about the reduction.

- El Salvador (1), Down 3 from last week. Flights are somewhat erratic with flights over the last 7 weeks of 1,4,3,2,2,4,1. It should be noted that this flight was not coupled with a return to any other countries as has been the practice.

- Guatemala (1), down 2 from last week, Typically, there have been 2 most weeks but last week 3 so that could be the reason.

- Ecuador (1), same as last week. Alternates between 1 or 2 per week and generally coupled with an El Salvador flight, but this week with one to Honduras.

- Honduras (2), after 2 weeks of no flights, with one for the first time since the hurricane to San Pedro Sula. That one then continued to Ecuador.

- Dominican (1), up 1 from last week and in the pattern of 1 every other week.

- Nicaragua (1), up 1 from last week and in the pattern of 1 every 2-3 weeks.

- 7 Removal Connects, same as last week and 5 below the last 6-week average and consistent with decrease in removals.

- 9 Removal Returns, down 2 from last week, and 7 below the prior 6-week average and consistent with removal flights.

- 32 Shuffle flights in the US, down 9 from last week 2 above and 6 above the last 6-week average.

- NOTEWORTHY THIS WEEK

 The Detainee population decreased 457 last week, as of 28 February. That relatively large increase follows a decrease over the last month of 885. The population increased to 13,890 and is under half of what it was at the beginning of May.

 Through January, 444,000 asylum seekers have been turned back and expelled under the illegal CDC order (title 42) since mid-March, 62,000 alone in January, or 83% of all encounters, down from the T-42 average of 90%. Yes, Encounters were up 6%, or just over 5,000 but it is no way representative of a “Biden” surge. See the charts an analysis in my twitter thread here.

 9,686 detainees have tested positive for COVID, up this week by 27. Testing increased last week by 2,849 to 104,063 on a cumulative basis, so the positivity rate was around 9% There are 407 detainees in isolation of under monitoring, down from last week.

Note: ICE Air does not disclose their flights. Flight listing gleaned from public flight information, knowledge of detention center locations, air charter services and historic patterns. In rare cases, there may be a flight we miss, or include in error.