4/10/21

By Tom Cartwright

**ICE Air Weekly Activity – Week of 5 April 2021. **

 Removal flights remain low at 10, which is becoming the new normal now. The prior 6-week average is now 11. The last 6 weeks have been significantly lower than the prior typical week of 18-20 removal flights.

 Domestic shuffle flights were extremely high at 72, 20 over the prior 6-week average, and the highest week in at least the last 12 months. 32 were related to the “lateral” flights from Brownsville to El Paso and San Diego each day (including weekends), 3 of which originated in San Antonio. There was a substantial increase in flights around the US and we will watch that for a new trend.

 The lateral flights began on March 8 and to the end of this week (through Friday, 9 April, there have been 66 flights from Brownsville to El Paso or San Diego from which we know from reports that many families were then expelled into Mexico.

 Especially worrisome is if families are flown there for expulsion because MX won’t receive them in Tamaulipas, but will in Chihuahua.

 Over the last 4 weeks through 9 April, we have seen at least 36 likely flights moving unaccompanied children from overcrowded CBP stations to the Dallas , San Diego, and Ft Bliss. Convention Centers. They are not in these totals as we do not consider them in the same category as ICE Air. Charters include 3 historic ICE Air Charter, Swift, Omni and World Atlantic, but these do not seem like ICE operations.

WEEKLY SUMMARY

• 100 Total Flights. Up 18 from last week, and 21 above the last 6-week average.

• 10 Removal (Deportation/Expulsions) – Up 2 from last week, and 1 below the prior 6-week average. To 7 different countries in Latin America the Caribbean.

• Haiti (2), up 1 from the prior week. Flights have been extremely variable the last 4 weeks at 1,3,1,2. Before and after October flights to Haiti were about 2 per month. In October there were 12 as encounters increased and T-42 enforced. We understand most of the people returned were subject to T-42. In addition to the reportedly approximately 1000 Haitians removed by air). The decrease in crossings appears to have been reversed recently.

• Mexico (2), Down 2 from last week, and 1/4 the run rate up until 2 months ago. Return cities were Villahermosa and Mexico City. Other than that week, the prior 4 had been at 2 or 3. This is a dramatic change. In June there were 24 flights and then from July through Jan between 30 and 40. From Sept through Jan there were about 9 flights per week to 6 different cities, and similar to every week: Mexico City (2), Guadalajara (2), Puebla (1), Morelia (1), Villahermosa (1), and Queretaro (2). CBP refuses to answer our inquiry about the drop. We are still befuddled, especially as encounters increased as well as recidivism.

• El Salvador (1), Up 1 from last week and consistent with the prior 4 weeks.

• Guatemala (1), up 1 from last week after none last week, which was the first week with no flights since the week of 15 February. Typically, there has been 1 in 3 of the last 4 weeks.

• Ecuador (1), same as last week, and of each of the prior 6 weeks. Alternates between 1 or 2 per week and this one was coupled with a Honduras flight as it was the last 2 weeks.

• Honduras (2), up 1 from last week, and consistent with the last month. The flight continued on the Ecuador.

• Dominican: (1), up 1 from last week and in pattern of 1 every 2 to 3 weeks.

• 9 Removal Connects, up 1 from last week and 2 over the last 6-week average and consistent with increase in removals.

• 9 Removal Returns, up 2 from last week, and at below the prior 6-week average and consistent with removal flights.

• 72 Shuffle flights in the US, up 13 from last week 20 above the last 6-week average.

Significantly driven by the “lateral” flights from Brownsville and San Diego accounting for over 32 of the total. There are 2 lateral flights every day (including weekends) to each destination and some originate in San Antonio. That said, flights just moving around the US were up substantially last week and we will watch.

• NOTEWORTHY THIS WEEK

 Through March, 637,363 asylum seekers have been turned back and expelled under the illegal CDC order (title 42) since mid-March, 103,900 alone in March, or 60% of all encounters, down from the T-42 average of 77% (March2020-2021).

 The Detainee population decreased 238 last week, as of 2 April. That increase helped drive an increase over the last 4 weeks of 552. This needs to be watched. The population increased to 14,315 and is under half of what it was at the beginning of May.

Note: ICE Air does not disclose their flights. Flight listing gleaned from public flight information, knowledge of detention center locations, air charter services and historic patterns. In rare cases, there may be a flight we miss, or include in error.

This painting was in my WhatsApp feed and I am so sorry I don't know who to credit. If someone knows let me know and I will add. Hauntingly beautiful.