4/17/21

By Tom Cartwright

ICE Air Weekly Activity – Week of 12 April 2021.

 Removal flights remain low at 8, which is becoming the new normal now. The prior 6-week average is now 10. The last 6 weeks have been significantly lower than the prior typical week of 18-20 removal flights up until a little over a month ago

 Domestic shuffle flights were extremely high at 79, 22 over the prior 6-week average, and the highest week in at least the last 12 months. 38 were related to the “lateral” flights from Brownsville to El Paso and San Diego each day (including weekends), 10 of which originated in San Antonio or other cities. There was again a large number of flights around the US and we will watch that resumed new trend to continue

 The lateral flights began on March 8 and to the end of this week (through Friday, 9 April, there have been 80 flights from Brownsville to El Paso or San Diego from which we know from reports that many families were then expelled into Mexico.

 Especially worrisome is if families are flown there for expulsion because MX won’t receive them in Tamaulipas, but will in Chihuahua.

 Over the last 4 weeks through 9 April, we have seen at least 61 likely flights moving unaccompanied children from overcrowded CBP stations to the new EIS centers and to possible ORR shelters. They are not in these totals as we do not consider them in the same category as ICE Air. Charters include 3 historic ICE Air Charter, Swift, Omni and World Atlantic, but these do not seem like ICE operations. Omni has not operated a flight is a couple of weeks.

WEEKLY SUMMARY

- 99 Total Flights. Down 1 from last week, and 16 above the last 6-week average.

- 8 Removal (Deportation/Expulsions) – Down 2 from last week, and 2 below the prior 6-week average. To 6 different countries in Latin America the Caribbean.

- Haiti (1), down 1 from the prior week. Flights have been extremely variable the last 4 weeks at 3,1,2, and 1. Before and after October flights to Haiti were about 2 per month. In October there were 12 as encounters increased and T-42 enforced. We understand most of the people returned were subject to T-42. In addition to the reportedly approximately 1000 Haitians removed by air). The decrease in crossings by Haitians appears to be influencing the lower flight levels..

- Mexico (2), Same as last week, and 1/4 the run rate up until 2 months ago. Return cities were Villahermosa and Mexico City, same as last week. The most recent prior 4 weeks had been at 2 or 3. This is a dramatic change. In June there were 24 flights and then from July through Jan between 30 and 40. From Sept through Jan there were about 9 flights per week to 6 different cities, and similar to every week: Mexico City (2), Guadalajara (2), Puebla (1), Morelia (1), Villahermosa (1), and Queretaro (2). CBP refuses to answer our inquiry about the drop. We are still befuddled, especially as encounters increased as well as recidivism.

- El Salvador (1), Same as last week and consistent with the prior 4 weeks at 1 or 2

- Guatemala (1), same as last last week and consistent with the prior week.

- Ecuador (1), same as last week, and of each of the prior 7 weeks, and this one was coupled with a Honduras flight as it was the last 3 weeks.

- Honduras (2), same as last week, and consistent with the last month. One flight continued on the Ecuador.

- 6 Removal Connects, down 3 from last week and 2 below the last 6-week average and consistent with increase in removals.

- 6 Removal Returns, down 3 from last week, 2 below the prior 6-week average and consistent with removal flights.

- 79 Shuffle flights in the US, up 7 from last week 22 above the last 6-week average.

Significantly driven by the “lateral” flights from Brownsville and San Diego accounting for over 38 of the total. There are 2 lateral flights every day (including weekends) to each destination and some originate in San Antonio. That said, flights just moving around the US were up substantially the last 2 weeks and we will watch.

- NOTEWORTHY THIS WEEK

 Through March, 637,363 asylum seekers have been turned back and expelled under the illegal CDC order (title 42) since mid-March, 103,900 alone in March, or 60% of all encounters, down from the T-42 average of 77% (March2020-2021).

 The Detainee population increased 1,019 last week, as of 12 April. That increase helped drive an increase over the last 4 weeks of 1,283. It is the largest weekly and monthly increase in at least a year. This needs to be watched. I have a suspicion it may be linked to the Endeavor contract and process where asylum seekers that will be released enter ICE detention in hotels under Endeavor for what is supposed to be less that 72 hours before release. The population increased to 15,334 and is still under half of what it was at the beginning of May.

Note: ICE Air does not disclose their flights. Flight listing gleaned from public flight information, knowledge of detention center locations, air charter services and historic patterns. In rare cases, there may be a flight we miss, or include in error.