4/24/21

By Tom Cartwright

ICE Air Weekly Activity – Week of 19 April 2021.

RECORD WEEK.

Highest number of weekly flights over past 12 months at 126 (tied week of 10/25/2020).

Record High number of weekly shuffle flights since recording 1/1/2020 at 104.

Removal flights remain low at 9, which is becoming the new normal now. The prior 6-week average is now 9. In February it was about 16 and in January closer to 20.

 Domestic shuffle flights at the record level of 104, 25 over the prior 6-week average, and the highest week in ever recorded since 1/1/2020. 36 were related to the “lateral” flights from Brownsville to El Paso and San Diego each day (including weekends), 8 of which originated in San Antonio or other cities. There was also large number of flights around the US and we will watch that resumed new trend to continue.

- The escalation in shuffle flights above the lateral flights is curious and dramatic departure. An aberration/catch up in detention center allocation? Not sure.

 The lateral flights began on March 8 and to the end of this week (through Friday, 24 April, there have been 94 flights from Brownsville to El Paso or San Diego from which we know from reports that many families were then expelled into Mexico. We are approaching 10,000 asylum seekers flown 1000s of miles only to be expelled.

 Especially worrisome is if families are flown there for expulsion because MX won’t receive them in Tamaulipas, but will in Chihuahua.

 Over the last 5 ½ weeks through 24 April, we have seen over 80 likely flights moving unaccompanied children from overcrowded CBP stations to the new EIS and influx centers and to possible ORR shelters. THEY ARE NOT IN THESE TOTALS as we do not consider them in the same category as ICE Air. Charters include 3 historic ICE Air Charter, Swift, Omni and World Atlantic, but these do not seem like ICE operations. Omni has not operated a flight is a couple of weeks.

WEEKLY SUMMARY

- 126 Total Flights. Up 27 from last week, and 36 above the last 6-week average.

- 9 Removal (Deportation/Expulsions) – Up 1 from last week, and at the prior 6-week average. To 7 different countries in Latin America the Caribbean.

- Haiti (2), up 1 from the prior week. Flights have been variable the last 4 weeks between 1 and 2 per week. Before and after October flights to Haiti were about 2 per month. In October there were 12 as encounters increased and T-42 enforced. We understand most of the people returned were subject to T-42. In addition to the reportedly approximately 1000 Haitians removed by air). The decrease in crossings by Haitians appears to be influencing the lower flight levels.

- Mexico (2), Same as last 3 weeks, and 1/4 the run rate up until 2 months ago. Return cities were Villahermosa and Mexico City, same as last 2 weeks. In June there were 24 flights and then from July through Jan between 30 and 40. From Sept through Jan there were about 9 flights per week to 6 different cities, and similar to every week: Mexico City (2), Guadalajara (2), Puebla (1), Morelia (1), Villahermosa (1), and Queretaro (2). CBP refuses to answer our inquiry about the drop. We are still befuddled, especially as encounters, even considering recidivism.

- El Salvador (1), Same as last 4 weeks. The consistency points to deportations only…not T42.

- Guatemala (1), same as last 4 weeks. The consistency points to deportations only…not T42.

- Ecuador (1), same as last 9 weeks. This one was coupled with a Honduras flight as has been typical.

- Honduras (1), down 1 from last week, and the prior 3 weeks. The consistency points to deportations only…not T42. One flight continued on the Ecuador.

- Dominican (1), up one from last week and in pattern of one every 3 weeks.

- 6 Removal Connects, same as last week and 1 below the last 6-week average and consistent with increase in removals.

- 7 Removal Returns, up 1 from last week, 2 below the prior 6-week average and consistent with removal flights.

- 104 Shuffle flights in the US, up 25 from last week 37 above the last 6-week average.

Meaningfully driven by the “lateral” flights from Brownsville and San Diego accounting for over 36 of the total number. There are 2 lateral flights every day (including weekends) to each destination and some originate in San Antonio. That said, flights just moving around the US were up massively the last 2 weeks pushing shuffle flights to a record.

- NOTEWORTHY THIS WEEK

 Through March, 637,363 asylum seekers have been turned back and expelled under the illegal CDC order (title 42) since mid-March, 103,900 alone in March, or 60% of all encounters, down from the T-42 average of 77% (March2020-2021).

 The Detainee population decreased 289 last week, as of 19 April, following an unusual increase of 1,019 the prior week. Perhaps the decrease is a result of removals which have been running about 750 per week. The population decreased to 15,045 and is still under half of what it was at the beginning of May.

Note: ICE Air does not disclose their flights. Flight listing gleaned from public flight information, knowledge of detention center locations, air charter services and historic patterns. In rare cases, there may be a flight we miss, or include in error.