4/5/21

By Tom Cartwright

ICE Air Weekly Activity – Week of 29 March 2021.

 Removal flights very low at 8, which is 4 below the prior 6-week average and the lowest since the week of 5 April also at 8. The last 6 weeks have been significantly lower than the prior typical week of 18-20 removal flights.

 4 flights to Mexico this week (half of all removal flights). For almost 6 months there were 8 to 9 per week, but the last 6 have been between 0-4. We inquired of CBP to see if that was a US or MX decision, but they declined to comment.

 Domestic shuffle flights still elevated at 59, of which 32, over half, were related to the “lateral” flights from Brownsville to El Paso and San Diego each day (including weekends), 4 of which originated in San Antonio.

 The lateral flights began on March 8 and to the end of this week (through Friday, 2 April, there have been 52 flights from Brownsville to El Paso or San Diego from which we know from reports that many families were then expelled into Mexico.

 Especially worrisome is if families are flown there for expulsion because MX won’t receive them in Tamaulipas, but will in Chihuahua.

 Over the last 3 weeks through 2 April, we have seen 25 likely flights moving unaccompanied children from overcrowded CBP stations to the Dallas , San Diego, and Ft Bliss. Convention Centers. They are not in these totals as we do not consider them in the same category as ICE Air. Charters include 3 historic ICE Air Charter, Swift, Omni and World Atlantic, but these do not seem like ICE operations.

 On Friday, Camilo-Montoya-Galvez of CBS reported that expulsions under title 42 by air have been suspended for Brazil, Nicaragua, Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador – for now. There were flights on Friday so that would mean only deportees were on the planes. We have a request for official confirmation to CBP/ICE. That said we saw only 1 flight to Honduras and it was coupled with a flight to Ecuador so it could have included only deportees to Honduras.

WEEKLY SUMMARY

- 82 Total Flights. Up 4 from last week, and 6 above the last 6-week average.

- 8 Removal (Deportation/Expulsions) – Down 4 from last week, and 4 below the prior 6-week average. To 5 different countries in Latin America the Caribbean.

- Haiti (1), down 3 from the prior week. Flights have been extremely variable the last 4 weeks at 4,1,3,1. Before and after October flights to Haiti were about 2 per month. In October there were 12 as encounters increased and T-42 enforced. We understand most of the people returned were subject to T-42. In addition to the reportedly approximately 1000 Haitians removed by air). The decrease in crossings appears to have been reversed recently.

- Mexico (4), Up 1 from last week, but still less than half the run rate up until a month ago. Return cities were Villahermosa, Mexico City and Guadalajara(2). Other than that week, the prior 4 had been at 2 or 3. This is a dramatic change. In June there were 24 flights and then from July through Jan between 30 and 40. From Sept through Jan there were about 9 flights per week to 6 different cities, and similar to every week: Mexico City (2), Guadalajara (2), Puebla (1), Morelia (1), Villahermosa (1), and Queretaro (2). We have question pending with ICE about the reduction.

- El Salvador (0), Down 1 from last week and the prior 4 weeks, The first week with no flights since at least November.

- Guatemala (0), down 1 from last week. First week with no flights since the week of 15 February.Typically, there has been 1 in 3 of the last 4 weeks.

- Ecuador (1), same as last week, and of each of the prior 5 weeks. Alternates between 1 or 2 per week and this one was coupled with a Honduras flight as it was the last 2 weeks.

- Honduras (1), down 2 from last week. there have been 2 or 3 of the last 4 weeks. The flight continued on the Ecuador.

- Columbia: (1), up 1 from last week and in pattern of 1 every 4 to 5 weeks.

- 8 Removal Connects, up 1 from last week and at the last 6-week average and consistent with increase in removals.

- 7 Removal Returns, same as last week, and 2 below the prior 6-week average and consistent with removal flights.

- 59 Shuffle flights in the US, up 7 from last week 8 above the last 6-week average.

Significantly driven by the “lateral” flights from Brownsville and San Diego accounting for over half of the total. There are 2 lateral flights every day (including weekends) to each destination and some originate in San Antonio.

- NOTEWORTHY THIS WEEK

 Through February, 532,000 asylum seekers have been turned back and expelled under the illegal CDC order (title 42) since mid-March, 72,000 alone in February, or 72% of all encounters, down from the T-42 average of 86%.

 The Detainee population decreased 139 last week, as of 26 March. That relatively small decrease follows a increase over the last month of 187. The population decreased to 14,077 and is under half of what it was at the beginning of May.

Note: ICE Air does not disclose their flights. Flight listing gleaned from public flight information, knowledge of detention center locations, air charter services and historic patterns. In rare cases, there may be a flight we miss, or include in error.