5/16/21

By Tom Cartwright

ICE Air Weekly Activity – Week of 10 May 2021. (photo El Paso TX mural)

 After 5 weeks of significantly elevated flights, driven 14 lateral flights per week plus their connections and returns, this week total flights fell to 73 as lateral flights were suspended. I won’t say stopped as ICE can change operations quickly.

 Friday 7 May was the last of the lateral flights to date with one from Yuma to El Paso. Thursday, 6 May was the last lateral flight from Brownsville to San Diego. 1 May was the last lateral flight from Brownsville to El Paso (with the exception of a possible one on 5 May from Brownsville to Yuma to El Paso).

 However, these lateral flights from Brownsville were essentially replaced by bussing an additional 200-250 people per day from the RGV to Laredo with about 100 expelled in Nuevo Laredo, perhaps the most dangerous city in Mexico in that area. Moreover, even though in the State of Tamaulipas, they will accept children 6 and under in families.

 10 Removal flights were consistent with the recent past.

 Over the last 9 weeks through 14 May, we have seen over 135 likely flights moving unaccompanied children from overcrowded CBP stations to the new EIS and influx centers and to possible ORR shelters. THEY ARE NOT IN THESE TOTALS as we do not consider them in the same category as ICE Air. Charters include 3 historic ICE Air Charter, Swift, Omni and World Atlantic, but these do not seem like ICE operations. Omni has not operated a flight is a few of weeks.

WEEKLY SUMMARY

- 73 Total Flights. Down 25 from last week, and 31 below the last 6-week average.

- 10 Removal (Deportation/Expulsions) – Down 2 from last week, and 1 below the prior 6-week average. To 6 different countries in Latin America the Caribbean.

- 4 connection flights. Down 2 from last week 3 below the prior 6-week average.

- 7 return flights. Down 1 from last week and 2 below the prior 6-week average, consistent with removal flights.

- 52 Shuffle flights. Down 19 from last week and 28 below the prior 6-week average. This drop is related to the suspension of lateral flights noted above.

- Haiti (0), down 1 last week and the first week in 14 without a flight to Haiti. For the last 8 weeks flights have been 1 or 2 in almost every one of those weeks.

- Mexico (2), Same as last 6 weeks, and 1/4 the run rate up until 2 months ago. Return cities were Villahermosa and Mexico City, same as last 5 weeks. In June there were 24 flights and then from July through Jan between 30 and 40. From Sept through Jan there were about 9 flights per week to 6 different cities, and similar to every week: Mexico City (2), Guadalajara (2), Puebla (1), Morelia (1), Villahermosa (1), and Queretaro (2). CBP refuses to answer our inquiry about the drop. We are still befuddled, especially as encounters, even considering recidivism.

- El Salvador (1), same as last week and the same as 5 of last 6 weeks. Points to deportations only…not T42.

- Guatemala (1), down 1 from last week and fairly consistent with the last 6 weeks. The flight was coupled with a flight to El Salvador. Points to deportations only…not T42.

- Ecuador (2), same as last week, and follows 10 weeks at 1 per week and last week at 2. Both were coupled with a Honduras flight as has been typical.

- Honduras (3), up 1 from last week, and more than the 1 or 2 per week over last 6 weeks. 2 were coupled with a flight to Ecuador.

- Nicaragua (1), up 1 from last week after 5 weeks without a flight.

- NOTEWORTHY THIS WEEK

 Through March, 754,645 asylum seekers have been turned back and expelled under the illegal CDC order (title 42) since mid-March 2020, with 111,714 alone in April, or 63% of all encounters, down from the T-42 average of 75% (March2020-April 2021).

 The Detainee population increased 891 last week, as of 5 May, following a large increase of 785 the prior week. The population has increased almost 3,000 (21%) over the past 2 months after falling steadily since over the last year. The population increased to 16,721 and is still under half of what it was at the beginning of May. Seems like a very big increase even considering the increase in encounters.

 38,563 people have been deported this fiscal year (beginning Oct 1,2020), 1,538 the two weeks ending 8 May. The pace is fairly steady at around 3,200 deportations per month.

Note: ICE Air does not disclose their flights. Flight listing gleaned from public flight information, knowledge of detention center locations, air charter services and historic patterns. In rare cases, there may be a flight we miss, or include in error.