5/2/21

By Tom Cartwright

ICE Air Weekly Activity – Week of 26 April 2021. (Photo: Plane landing in El Paso on 29 April with children to be detained at Ft. Bliss - THCartwright

Second highest number of weekly flights over past 12 months at 119 (ti2 weeks at 126).

Second highest number of weekly shuffle flights since recording 1/1/2020 at 97.

Removal flights remain low at 9, which is becoming the new normal now. The prior 6-week average is now 9. In February it was about 16 and in January closer to 20.

 Domestic shuffle flights close to the record level of 104 at 97. This week 24 over the prior 6-week average. 34 were related to the “lateral” flights from Brownsville to El Paso and San Diego each day (including weekends), 6 of which originated in San Antonio or Phoenix. There were also a large number of flights around the US and we will watch that new trend to continue. Perhaps more of a focus on deportations.

- The escalation in shuffle flights above the lateral flights is curious and dramatic departure.

 The lateral flights began on March 8 and to the end of this week (through Friday, 24 April, there have been 108 flights from Brownsville to El Paso or San Diego from which we know from reports that many families were then expelled into Mexico. We are approaching 10,000 asylum seekers flown 1000s of miles only to be expelled.

 Especially worrisome is if families are flown there for expulsion because MX won’t receive them in Tamaulipas, but will in Chihuahua.

 Over the last 6 ½ weeks through 24 April, we have seen over 100 likely flights moving unaccompanied children from overcrowded CBP stations to the new EIS and influx centers and to possible ORR shelters. THEY ARE NOT IN THESE TOTALS as we do not consider them in the same category as ICE Air. Charters include 3 historic ICE Air Charter, Swift, Omni and World Atlantic, but these do not seem like ICE operations. Omni has not operated a flight is a couple of weeks.

WEEKLY SUMMARY

- 119 Total Flights. Down 7 from last week, and 24 above the last 6-week average.

- 9 Removal (Deportation/Expulsions) – Same as last week, and at the prior 6-week average. To 7 different countries in Latin America the Caribbean.

- Haiti (1), down 1 from the prior week. Flights have been variable the last 4 weeks between 1 and 2 per week. we’ll see if next week is back to 2. Before and after October flights to Haiti were about 2 per month. In October there were 12 as encounters increased and T-42 enforced. We understand most of the people returned were subject to T-42. In addition to the reportedly approximately 1000 Haitians removed by air). The decrease in crossings by Haitians appears to be influencing the lower flight levels.

- Mexico (2), Same as last 4 weeks, and 1/4 the run rate up until 2 months ago. Return cities were Villahermosa and Mexico City, same as last 3 weeks. In June there were 24 flights and then from July through Jan between 30 and 40. From Sept through Jan there were about 9 flights per week to 6 different cities, and similar to every week: Mexico City (2), Guadalajara (2), Puebla (1), Morelia (1), Villahermosa (1), and Queretaro (2). CBP refuses to answer our inquiry about the drop. We are still befuddled, especially as encounters, even considering recidivism.

- El Salvador (0), down 1 from last week and from last 4 weeks. Points to deportations only…not T42.

- Guatemala (0), down 1 from last week and from last 3 weeks. Points to deportations only…not T42.

- Ecuador (1), same as last 10 weeks. This one was coupled with a Honduras flight as has been typical.

- Honduras (2), up 1 from last week, and consistent with 1 or 2 per week with 1 coupled with a flight to Ecuador.

- Columbia (1), up one from last week and in pattern of one about every 4 weeks.

- Jamaica (1), up 1 from last week and first in 8 weeks.

- Nicaragua (1), up 1 from last week and first in 5 weeks. Pointing also to deportations.

- 5 Removal Connects, down 1 from last week and 2 below the last 6-week average and consistent with removals.

- 8 Removal Returns, up 1 from last week, and 1 above the prior 6-week average and consistent with removal flights.

- 97 Shuffle flights in the US, down 7 from last week and 24 above the last 6-week average.

Meaningfully driven by the “lateral” flights from Brownsville and San Diego accounting for over 34 of the total number. There are 2 lateral flights every day (including weekends) to each destination and some originate in San Antonio. That said, flights just moving around the US were up significantly the last 3 weeks pushing shuffle flights to a record.

- NOTEWORTHY THIS WEEK

 Through March, 637,363 asylum seekers have been turned back and expelled under the illegal CDC order (title 42) since mid-March, 103,900 alone in March, or 60% of all encounters, down from the T-42 average of 77% (March2020-2021).

 The Detainee population increased 785 last week, as of 23 April, following a slight decrease of 289 the prior week. The population has increased 1,624 (11%) over the past month after falling steadily since over the last year. The population increased to 15,830 and is still under half of what it was at the beginning of May.

 37,025 people have been deported this fiscal year (beginning Oct 1,2020), 1,741 the two weeks ending 24 April. The pace is fairly steady at around 3,200 deportations per month.

Note: ICE Air does not disclose their flights. Flight listing gleaned from public flight information, knowledge of detention center locations, air charter services and historic patterns. In rare cases, there may be a flight we miss, or include in error.