8/16/20
By Tom Cartwright
DEATH FLIGHTS - WEEK OF 10 August – please share for transparency
67 UNACCOMPANIED CHILDREN ALONE ON ONE PLANE TO GUATEMALA THIS WEEK. WHAT WILL HAPPEN TO THEM? WILL THEY FIND THEIR FAMILIES? WE DON’T KNOW.
SAME NUMBER OF FLIGHTS AS LAST WEEK (81) AND 5 BELOW THE LAST 6-WEEK AVERAGE. WE WILL WITNESS IF THIS SLIGHTLY LOWER LEVEL CONTINUES.
- ALL FLIGHT CATEGORIES WERE SLIGHTLY BELOW THE LAST 6-WEEK AVERAGES WITH DEPORTATION RELATED (INCLUDING DIRECT CONNECTIONS AND RETURNS) BELOW BY 3 AND SHUFFLE FLIGHTS BY 2.
- THIS WEEK THERE WERE 15 DEPORTATION FLIGHTS TO 5 DIFFERENT COUNTRIES.
WEEKLY SUMMARY
- 81 Total Flights. Same as last week and below the last 6-week average of 86. Deportations were below by 2 and their returns by 1. Shuffle flights were below by 2 at 38.
15 Deportations – down 2 from last week and to 5 different countries. They were 2 below the most recent 6-week average of 17.
- Mexico (7), same as last week, and right in line with every week at 6 or 7 since min-June.
- Honduras (3), down 1 from last week
- Guatemala (3), up 1 from last week and in line with most weeks now of 2-3.
- El Salvador (1), same as last week.
- Haiti (1), same as last week.
- 13 Deportation US Connections, up 1 from last week.
- 15 Deportation Returns, down 1 from last week.
- 38 Shuffle flights in the US, up from last week. just 2 below the last 6-week average.
Ø NOTEWORTHY THIS WEEK
- Based on patterns, next week, in addition to the Mexico and Central American countries, we might expect 1 or 2 deportations split between either Dominican, Nicaragua, Brazil and/or Dominican.
- MEXICO: 6 – 7 Flights per week continue to 4 different cities: Mexico City (2), Guadalajara (2), Villahermosa (2), and Morelia (1). The standard weekly pattern held with 3 on Monday (Villahermosa 2; Guadalajara 1); 1 on Wednesday (Morelia); and 3 on Thursday (Mexico City 2 and Guadalajara 1). It was reported this week that 30% of Mexican National apprehensions are people who have crossed more than once.
- HONDURAS: In July there were about 4 per week and the last 3 weeks 4 per week alternated with 3. In June 4 per week alternated with 5 per week. So, it does appear we may be seeing a long-term decrease.
- GUATEMALA: In the last 8 weeks, 4 of the weeks had 3 flights per week, and 4 weeks had 2 flights per week with no defined trend. In May and June flights per week alternated between 1 and 2, so there has been a slight increase since the end of June. The number of people on each flight also seems to have increased from 75 per plane to this week at an average of 90 (total 269) on the 3 planes. When Guatemala announced the resumption of flights they indicated a max of 75 per flight. Even when Guatemala stopped flights they allowed exception “humanitarian” flights for unaccompanied children. Perhaps they still consider children exceptions from their passenger totals. If children are excluded, they are just below the 75 average passengers per plane.
- EL SALVADOR: The last 2 weeks each had 1 flight. In each of the prior 6 weeks there were 2 per week. We will watch for a consistent reduction.
- HAITI: Haiti was on a very regular every other week pattern for the last 4 months, then there were flights each of the last 2 weeks. Watching.
Ø The Detainee population dropped 428 this week, the second week in a row that the decrease has been by more than 100, but well below the average June reductions of about 650 per week. The current population is 2,118. Deportations continue and no one can assert their right to seek asylum which naturally drives down the population.
- Over 105,000 seekers have been turned back and expelled under the illegal CDC order (title 42) since mid -March. 35,000 alone in July out of 38,000 encounters and up from 28,000 in June.
Ø 4,568 detainees have tested positive for COVID, up 318 or 7%, this week, consistent with increases the past few weeks. 22,580 have been tested since the beginning of testing, up 1,522 this week, so 20% positive rate. This week’s 1,522 tests followed weeks of 1,993 and 2,589. There are 1069 detainees in isolation or under monitoring, up 17% from last week (911).
Note: ICE Air does not disclose their flights. Flight listing gleaned from public flight information, knowledge of detention center locations, air charter services and historic patterns. In rare cases, there may be a flight we miss, or include in error.