8/22/20

By Tom Cartwright

DEATH FLIGHTS - WEEK OF 17 August – please share for transparency

LAST WEEK’S QUESTION ANSWERED.

NO SLOW DOWN IN DEATH FLIGHTS.

- The prior two weeks were about 5 death flights below average and we were questioning whether ICE Air activity was falling a bit.

- This week’s 97 flights were 11 (13%) above the prior 6-week average, and was tied with the week of 5 July for the highest week since the week of 17 May.

- 20 DEPORTATION FLIGHTS TO 8 DIFFERENT COUNTRIES IN LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN WERE 3 ABOVE THE LAST 6-WEEK AVERAGE.

- SHUFFLE FLIGHTS OF 45 WERE 5 ABOVE THE LAST 6-WEEK AVERAGE AND BACK TO THEIR JUNE/JULY LEVELS.

WEEKLY SUMMARY

- 97 Total Flights. Up 16 from last week and above the last 6-week average of 86, as a result of an increase in deportation related flights (including connections and returns) of 9, and shuffle flights of 7.

20 Deportations – up 5 from last week and to 8 different countries. 3 above the most recent 6-week average of 17.

- Mexico (7), same as last week, and the same as 5 of the last 6 weeks. Flights continue to 4 different cities: Mexico City (2), Guadalajara (2), Villahermosa (2), and Morelia (1). Usual pattern in all respects.

- Honduras (4), same as last week, and in line with most weeks.

- Guatemala (4), up 1 from last week and up 1.5 from the prior 6-week average with 2 or 3 flights per week. See more below.

- El Salvador (1), same as last week, and the third week at 1 after running at 2 per week for around 7 weeks. We will witness to see if this lower number holds.

- Ecuador (1), up 1 from last week and in line with generally 1 every other week.

- Haiti (1), same as last week, and 3 weeks in a row at 1. Prior they were about every other week.

- Dominican (1), up 1 from last week. generally every other week.

- Brazil (1), up from last week.

- 14 Deportation US Connections, up 1 from last week.

- 18 Deportation Returns, up 3 from last week.

- 45 Shuffle flights in the US, up 7 from last week, and 5 above last 6-week average.

Ø NOTEWORTHY THIS WEEK

- Nicaragua deportations used to average about 1 flight every 2 weeks but it has now been 4 weeks in a row without a deportation to Nicaragua. The last deportation was 21 July.

- Guatemala received 4 deportation flights this week, the most in any single week since the week of 13 April. Moreover, the number on each flight is increasing. The flights Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday included 108, 127 and 99 deportees, respectively. Friday’s is not yet available. Prior to last week Guatemala restricted flights 2 per week and below 75 deportees.

- The Guatemalan Government reported that the detainees on the flight of 127 all had certificates that indicated they all recovered from COVID in detention in the US. We are wondering if they are now requiring this on all flights and that is perhaps why they seem to be accepting both more flights and more deportees.

- When we look at ICE COVID statistics we see some correlation between drops in what ICE reports as detainees in isolation and monitoring for COVID and flights to Guatemala over the past month. For example, on 19 August detainees in isolation and monitoring fell by the largest number ever recorded at 239. There were flights to Guatemala on 18, 19, 20 and 21 August. We see this pattern at least 4 other times in the past month. It could be a coincidence, but we have written to ICE to see if they will respond as to when this procedure started. Not sure if they will respond.

Ø The Detainee population dropped only 11 this week, the smallest weekly decrease since 21 March. It should be noted that ICE changed the format of their reporting and they are not very good at explaining if there were changes in methodology or timing. So, we will wait until next week before opining. The June weekly average decrease was about 650. May saw decreases of about 1,000 per week. The current population is 21,107.

Ø Over 105,000 seekers have been turned back and expelled under the illegal CDC order (title 42). Illegal order since mid -March. 35,000 alone in July out of 38,000 encounters and up from 28,000 in June. Worse yet the reporting and transparency around how many have been children and what has happened to them is non-existent. Other than finding many are held in hotels by a 3rd party contractor before being expelled.

- It has been reported by CBP that the few that may not qualify to be expelled, some not from Mexico or Northern Triangle Countries, are still being enrolled in MPP.

Ø 4,743 detainees have tested positive for COVID, up 175 or 4%, this week. 23,964 have been tested since the beginning of testing, up 1,384 this week, so 20% positive rate. This week’s 1,384 tests followed weeks of 1,495 and 1,993. There are 795 detainees in isolation of under monitoring, down 274 from last week.

Note: ICE Air does not disclose their flights. Flight listing gleaned from public flight information, knowledge of detention center locations, air charter services and historic patterns. In rare cases, there may be a flight we miss, or include in error.