8/8/20

By Tom Cartwright

DEATH FLIGHTS - WEEK OF 3 August – please share for transparency

THIS WEEK WAS A BIT BELOW THE LAST 6-WEEK AVERAGE, AND FOLLOWED ANOTHER WEEK THAT WAS SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE. WE DO NOT BELIEVE IT IS A CHANGE IN PROCESS, BUT WILL WITNESS.

- DEPORTATIONS WERE ABOUT AVERAGE, BUT SHUFFLE FLIGHTS BETWEEN DETENTION CENTERS WERE BELOW AVERAGE. WE DO NOT THINK THIS IS A CHANGE IN OPERATIONS, BUT WILL WITNESS CLOSELY NEXT WEEK.

- THIS WEEK THERE WERE 17 DEPORTATION FLIGHTS TO 6 DIFFERENT COUNTRIES.

WEEKLY SUMMARY

- 81 Total Flights. Down 2 from last week and a below the last 6-week average of 90, all the result of shuffle flights of 36 that were lower than the most recent 6-week average of 41. Deportations of 17 were just 1 below the most recent 6-week average of 18.

17 Deportations – up 3 from last week and to 6 different countries. Just 1 below the most recent 6-week average of 18.

- Mexico (7), up 1 from last week, and right in line with every week at 6 or 7 since min-June. Flights continue to 4 different cities: Mexico City (2), Guadalajara (2), Villahermosa (2), and Morelia (1). See below for more on Mexico.

- Honduras (4), up 1 from last week, and in line with most weeks.

- Guatemala (2), same as last week and in line with most weeks now of 2-3.

- El Salvador (1), down 1 from last week, and below the 2 of the prior 6 weeks.

- Ecuador (2), up 2 from last week, and 1 higher than the typical 1 every other week.

- Haiti (1), up 1 from last week but consistent with every other week pattern.

- 12 Deportation US Connections, down 1 from last week.

- 16 Deportation Returns, up 2 from last week

- 36 Shuffle flights in the US, down 6 from as last week. Although low, in the last 8 weeks this is the 3rd time with 36.

Ø NOTEWORTHY THIS WEEK

- Based on patterns, next week, in addition to the Mexico and Central American countries we might expect deportations to Nicaragua, Brazil and/or Dominican.

- Mexico deportations to 4 Mexican cities of 6-7 per week continue to make up 35%-40% of deportation flights. Based on consistent reporting from Mexico we understand these flights are all Mexican Nationals and are filled to capacity (120-140) with those expelled under the CDC order (Title 42). Two recent flights to Villahermosa carried 270 repatriated Mexicans who supposedly were checked for symptoms (not tested!) at departure and arrival. We also understand 4 cities are used in order to not overburden any one city and because these cities have access to transportation for dispersal to other parts of the country.

- Mark Morgan of CBP this week said that 78% of encounters at the in July were of Mexican Nationals. Since May numbers indicate about 80% and of that 80% on Mexican nationals, about 93% were single adults. In 2019 around 80% of encounters at the Southern Border of migrants from Mexico and the Northern Triangle Countries were from Northern Triangle. In 2020 it is about 30%.

- This week 25 unaccompanied minors were on a flight deportation flight of 95 to Guatemala. Although Guatemala is controlling flights it was reported this week that shelters for unaccompanied children are under great stress in Guatemala as capacity is only 115 and about 50 children per week are deported from the US. The hope is to try to reunify them with their families, but there is often sever danger in returning to a situation they fled out of fear. It was also reported that only about 10% of the children were tested before deportation, leaving Guatemala to test and quarantine based on results. Between April and July, the US deported 379 unaccompanied minors to Guatemala. In July, 176.

Ø The Detainee population dropped 258 this week, similar to last few weeks. The June weekly average decrease was about 650. May saw decreases of about 1,000 per week. The current population is 21,884.

Ø Over 105,000 seekers have been turned back and expelled under the illegal CDC order (title 42). illegal order since mid -March. 35,000 alone in July out of 38,000 encounters and up from 28,000 in June. Worse yet the reporting and transparency around how many have been children and what has happened to them is non-existent. Other than finding many are held in hotels by a 3rdpart contractor before being expelled.

- It has been reported by CBP that the few that may not qualify to be expelled, some not from Mexico or Northern Triangle Countries, are still being enrolled in MPP.

Ø 4,250 detainees have tested positive for COVID, up 315 or 8%, this week. 21,085 have been tested since the beginning of testing, up 1,993 this week, so 20% positive rate. This week’s 1,993 tests followed weeks of 2,589 and 2,941. There are 911 detainees in isolation of under monitoring, almost the same as last week.

Photo: El Heraldo De Tabasco

Note: ICE Air does not disclose their flights. Flight listing gleaned from public flight information, knowledge of detention center locations, air charter services and historic patterns. In rare cases, there may be a flight we miss, or include in error.