10/26/20
By Tom Cartwright
DEATH FLIGHTS - WEEK OF 19 October – please share for transparency
Ø We continue to believe the ICE Air ramp up over the last 4 weeks reflects more T-42 (CDC order) expulsions by air.
Ø 27 DEPORTATIONS - brings the 6 week average to 25, up from 18 for the prior 6 week average. (note: includes people expelled under T-42)
Ø 7 DIFFERENT COUNTRIES.
Ø 106 TOTAL FLIGHTS – 4TH week in a row over 100 per week.
Ø Cameroon Update: Last week we reported on a deportation flight to Cameroon and DR Congo. Cameroon is in the midst of a violent separatist conflict and yet, over protestation of brave advocates and Members of Congress, ICE sent 60 people into mortal danger. Contrary to exactly what asylum laws were agreed to protect from. Yesterday a children’s school in Kumba was caught in the conflict and 13 children were shot down –slaughtered - at school. 28 people were deported to DR Congo and many are in hiding for their safety. We are angry at, and ashamed of, our country.
WEEKLY SUMMARY
- 106 Total Flights. Down 20 from last week’s record week, and 4 above the last 6-week average of 102.
- 27 Deportations – Down 5 from last week’s record high tie, and 2 over prior 6-week average. To 7 different countries in Latin America and the Caribbean. We believe expulsions are driving the increase in Deportation/Expulsion flights.
- Mexico (9), Up 1 from last week (see below), and back to the typical 9 now after 1 was diverted last week. August was 7 per week and now stepped up to 9. Flights to 6 different cities this week, and similar to every week: Mexico City (2), Guadalajara (2), Puebla (1), Morelia (1), Villahermosa (1), and Queretaro (2).
- Honduras (4), down 1 from last week and follows three weeks in a row at 5. For at least 3 months before that there were never more that 4 per week. None were coupled with an Ecuador deportation for the first time in two weeks. In July there were about 4 per week and prior to that 4-5 per week.
- Guatemala (7), up 1 last week and highest since pandemic began. Will have to watch to see if this is a new level. Up 1.5 from the June to mid-August levels of 2 or 3 flights per week. Since mid-August there have been about 1 per day.
- El Salvador (2), Same as last week, and now 1 – 2 per week.
- Haiti (3), down from 6 last week. In October so far, there have been 11 flights. Before August there were 2 flights per month and in August and September there were 3 each month. Not sure why it dropped, but we understand many on these flights are T-42 expulsions and those are dependent on the number of people crossing. We will be watching.
- Dominican (1), after 0 last week. Pattern is sporadic.
- Peru (1), the first deportation flight since the week of 13 July.
- 15 Deportation US Connections, down 6 from last week, and 1 below recent 6-week average of 16, consistent with increase in deportations.
- 26 Deportation Returns, down 5 from last week, but up 4 from the prior 6 week average and consistent level of deportations.
- 38 Shuffle flights in the US, down 2 from last week, and 1 above the last 6-week average.
Ø NOTEWORTHY THIS WEEK
Ø Expulsions under CDC order (title 42): We are highly certain now that the increase deportation activity is the result of more people being expelled under the CDC order via flights. We understand that a “deportation” is different from an “expulsion” but for easy of discussion, and because both are on the same plane we will refer to all as deportation flight. Some of the increase in flights may be due to increased encounters and expulsions that run about 90% of encounters. Expulsions in September increased about 5,500 to 48,400. The increase follows increases of 8,400 and 7,000 in July and August, respectively. Deportations in August were 70 and they may reach 120 or more in October. At a conservative 85/plane that would be an increase of 4,250 deportees/expulsions by air. ICE will not comment, but it is reasonable to assume that Mexico may be pushing the limits of land expulsions resulting in much of the increase now expelled by air. A prime example is Haiti as discussed below. Another couple of weeks will confirm this.
Ø Haiti: We believe the massive increase to 11 deportation/expulsion flights in October to date are the result of expulsions under T-42 based on conversations close to people in Haiti and on the planes. Also the following CBP report from just 1 sector along the border speaks to the number of Haitians they encountered.
Ø Cameroon: Last week we reported on a deportation flight to Cameroon and DR Congo. Cameroon is in the midst of a violent separatist conflict and yet, over protestation of brave advocates and Members of Congress, ICE sent 60 people into mortal danger. Contrary to exactly what asylum laws were agreed to protect from. Yesterday a children’s school in Kumba was caught in the conflict and 13 children were shot down –at school.
Ø The Detainee population dropped 545 this week, the largest weekly decrease in 19 weeks, to 18,827, under half of what it was at the end of February. The September weekly average drop was about 250 while in May it was about 1,000 per week.
Ø Through September, 205,000 asylum seekers have been turned back and expelled under the illegal CDC order (title 42) since mid-March, 48,300 alone in September, up 5,500 from August.
Ø Almost 9,000 unaccompanied children have been expelled into danger alone since mid-March
- It has been reported by CBP that the few that may not qualify to be expelled, some not from Mexico or Northern Triangle Countries, are still being enrolled in MPP. We understand around 1,000 in September.
Ø 6,775 detainees have tested positive for COVID, up this week by 132 or 2%. Testing increased last week by 2,068 to 50,105 on a cumulative basis, so the positivity rate was around 13%. There are 647 detainees in isolation of under monitoring, down 81 from last week.
Note: ICE Air does not disclose their flights. Flight listing gleaned from public flight information, knowledge of detention center locations, air charter services and historic patterns. In rare cases, there may be a flight we miss, or include in error.