11/1/20

By Tom Cartwright

DEATH FLIGHTS - WEEK OF 26 October – please share for transparency

Ø TIED FOR THE HIGHEST DEPORTATION WEEK OF THE YEAR AT 31

Ø 10 DIFFERENT COUNTRIES

Ø We continue to believe the ICE Air ramp up over the last 5 weeks reflects more T-42 (CDC order) expulsions by air.

Ø 127 TOTAL FLIGHTS – 5TH week in a row over 100 per week.

WEEKLY SUMMARY

- 127 Total Flights. Up 21 from last week, and 14 above the last 6-week average of 103.

- 31 Deportations – Up 4 from last week and tied for the second highest month of this year, and 5 over prior 6-week average. To 10 different countries in Latin America and the Caribbean. We believe expulsions are driving the increase in Deportation/Expulsion flights.

- Mexico (9), Same as last week and typical of almost every week over the last two months. August was 7 per week and August and September stepped up to 9. Flights to 6 different cities this week, and similar to every week: Mexico City (2), Guadalajara (2), Puebla (1), Morelia (1), Villahermosa (1), and Queretaro (2).

- Honduras (5), up 1 from last week and same as 4 of the last 5 weeks. For at least 3 months before that there were never more that 4 per week. Two were coupled with an Ecuador deportation. In July there were about 4 per week and prior to that 4-5 per week.

- Guatemala (8), up 1 last week and highest since pandemic began. Will have to watch to see if this is a new level. Up 1.5 from the June to mid-August levels of 2 or 3 flights per week.

- El Salvador (2), Same as last week, and third week in a row at 2 after alternating between 1 – 2 per week.

- Haiti (1), down from 3 last week and 6 the week before. In October there were 12 flights. Before August there were 2 flights per month and in August and September there were 3 each month. Not sure why it dropped, but we understand many on these flights are T-42 expulsions and those are dependent on the number of people crossing. We will be watching.

- Trinidad (1), only the second flight this year after 1 in June.

- Jamaica (1), the only one in October following 2 in September and an average of 1 per month this year.

- Brazil (1), the only one in October and follows 1 in September.

- Ecuador (2), the 4thout of 5 weeks at 2, and both coupled with a deportation route to Honduras.

- Nicaragua (1), continues to alternate now about every other week.

- 19 Deportation US Connections, up 4 from last week, and 3 above recent 6-week average of 16, consistent with increase in deportations.

- 26 Deportation Returns, same as last week, and up 2 from the prior 6 week average and consistent level of deportations.

- 51 Shuffle flights in the US, up 13 from last week, and 14 above the last 6-week average.

Ø NOTEWORTHY THIS WEEK

Ø Expulsions under CDC order (title 42): We are highly certain now that the increase deportation activity is the result of more people being expelled under the CDC order via flights. We understand that a “deportation” is different from an “expulsion” but for easy of discussion, and because both are on the same plane we will refer to all as deportation flight. Some of the increase in flights may be due to increased encounters and expulsions that run about 90% of encounters. Expulsions in September increased about 5,500 to 48,400. The increase follows increases of 8,400 and 7,000 in July and August, respectively. Deportations in August were 70 and they may reach 120 or more in October. At a conservative 85/plane that would be an increase of 4,250 deportees/expulsions by air. ICE will not comment, but it is reasonable to assume that Mexico may be pushing the limits of land expulsions resulting in much of the increase now expelled by air. A prime example is Haiti as discussed below. Another couple of weeks will confirm this.

Ø Haiti: We believe the massive increase to 12 deportation/expulsion flights in October are the result of expulsions under T-42 based on conversations close to people in Haiti and on the planes. Also the following CBP report from just 1 sector along the border speaks to the number of Haitians they encountered.

Ø The Detainee population dropped 728 this week, the largest weekly decrease in 20 weeks, to 18,099, under half of what it was at the end of February. The 2 prior weeks dropped 545 and 370, respectively. The September weekly average drop was about 250 while in May it was about 1,000 per week.

Ø Through September, 205,000 asylum seekers have been turned back and expelled under the illegal CDC order (title 42) since mid-March, 48,300 alone in September, up 5,500 from August.

Ø Almost 9,000 unaccompanied children have been expelled into danger alone since mid-March

- It has been reported by CBP that the few that may not qualify to be expelled, some not from Mexico or Northern Triangle Countries, are still being enrolled in MPP. We understand around 1,000 in September.

Ø 6,938 detainees have tested positive for COVID, up this week by 162 or 2%. Testing increased last week by 4,502 to 54,607 on a cumulative basis, so the positivity rate was around 13%. This is one of the highest numbers of weekly tests perhaps because of the large number of deportations. There are 362 detainees in isolation of under monitoring, down 285 from last week, a very high week but it seems like it may have been a reporting issue. We sent a not to CBP reporting.

Note: ICE Air does not disclose their flights. Flight listing gleaned from public flight information, knowledge of detention center locations, air charter services and historic patterns. In rare cases, there may be a flight we miss, or include in error.